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Country Hedging Weekly Market Update - July 23, 2010
   
 

Despite cautious words from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the economy, equity and crude oil markets climbed the proverbial “wall of worry” this week. A recent barrage of negative economic news weighed on these markets, but generally good second-quarter earnings and news out of Europe, including the results of the bank stress tests, allowed them to recover. The S&P 500 closed higher four out of the five days, dipping only on Wednesday in deference to Bernanke’s hesitation. The S&P was up 3.5 percent for the week just prior to the close. Nearby crude oil traded to the highest level since May, and was up nearly 4 percent for the week. Crude oil is testing the top end of its summer range, but a breakout above the 2010 high set in early May does not seem to be supported by the current economic and/or inventory outlooks.

Retracing last week’s weather rally was the theme in the corn market this week. While the previously forecast heat was a feature in parts of the Corn Belt, accompanying rainfall kept the crop in good condition overall. Yield estimates edged higher if for no other reason than a critical week passed without a widespread threat. Demand news was limited to a fairly solid export sales week of 1.2 mmt, roughly evenly split between the old and new crop marketing years. For the week, December corn was down 22¾ cents.

Wheat markets continued to rally on the European/Asian crop problems, although not as robustly as the previous week. Wheat on U.S. exchanges was clearly a follower of European prices, waiting to make new highs until after European prices led the way mid-week. Harvest is getting into full swing in the EU-27 countries and the more threatened spring crops of Russia and Kazakhstan are still a few weeks away from harvest. For the week, the nearby contracts were up 9 cents in Chicago, 16 cents in Kansas City and 17 cents in Minneapolis.

November soybeans were just 3½ cents lower on the week, reluctant to give ground ahead of the August reproductive timeframe despite the selling in corn. Demand news was mixed for beans this week. The June Census Bureau crush was less than expected at 129.2 million bushels. Marketing year to date, the crush is up 5.7 percent, still ahead of the USDA projection of a 5 percent increase.

Export sales were strong once again though, with the focus on the 2010/11 marketing year. The daily reporting system lit up this week on three different days to announce the sales of a total of 575 tmt to a combination of South Korea, China and others.

Friday’s Cattle On Feed report was about as expected, showing 3.3 percent more cattle in feedlots than a year ago. The nearby live cattle price was up a little over a dollar for the week, reaching the highest price since May on Thursday.




 


 

 


 
     
 
   
 
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