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Country Hedging Market Update - November 21st, 2008
   
 

The year 2008 will go down in the history books as the year of extremes. Commodity prices and the stock market started the year with great expectations and robust demand. But once the Summer Olympics in China came to a close, things changed drastically.

Corn prices are down $4.40 per bushel from the June highs, soybeans down $8.00 per bushel and hard wheat down $5.00 per bushel. Demand for U.S. commodities has dropped off dramatically with the strengthening dollar. Feed wheat from the Black Sea region is competing with corn for feed rations world-wide.

The trend did little to change this week. Quoting from today’s Wall Street Journal, “The Dow is off 47 percent from last year’s record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49 percent. It is down 43 percent for the year so far. If it doesn’t improve, that would make this the second-worst yearly pullback since it was launched in 1896. The worst was 1931, when it fell 53 percent.”

World demand has slowed due to credit concerns and uncertainty of the future. Most buyers are only buying product for near-by needs, waiting to see if prices fall as time passes. Currently, there are more than 600 manufacturing plants in China sitting idle. Deflation seems to be the new description of our economy – just the opposite of six months ago.

And this week, ethanol captured a lot of attention with plant closings and bankruptcy filings. With the price of crude dropping, gasoline for the first time in recent history was cheaper than ethanol by 50 cents per gallon.

Volatility is the only sure thing in today’s environment. It’s like the weather in the Midwest -- if you don’t like what you have currently, wait a bit and it will change.

Price Changes This Week
Corn Down 37 c/bu
Soybeans Down 50 c/bu
Hard wheat Down 40 c/bu
Spring wheat Down 50 c/bu
Milk Up 75 c/cwt
Hogs Up 80 c/cwt
Cattle Down $6/cwt
Crude Down $9/bl
Dow Jones Down 1300 pts
Gold Up $65/oz








 




 
     
 
   
 
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