| Despite
cautious words from Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke on the economy, equity
and crude oil markets climbed the
proverbial “wall of worry” this
week. A recent barrage of negative
economic news weighed on these markets,
but generally good second-quarter
earnings and news out of Europe,
including the results of the bank stress
tests, allowed them to recover. The S&P
500 closed higher four out of the five days,
dipping only on Wednesday in deference to
Bernanke’s hesitation. The S&P
was up 3.5 percent for the week just prior
to the close. Nearby crude oil traded
to the highest level since May,
and was up nearly 4 percent for the week.
Crude oil is testing the top end of its
summer range, but a breakout above
the 2010 high set in early May
does not seem to be supported
by the current economic and/or inventory
outlooks.
Retracing
last week’s weather rally
was the theme in the corn market
this week. While the previously forecast
heat was a feature in parts of the Corn
Belt, accompanying rainfall kept
the crop in good condition overall.
Yield estimates edged higher
if for no other reason than a critical week
passed without a widespread threat. Demand
news was limited to a fairly solid
export sales week of 1.2 mmt, roughly
evenly split between the old and new crop
marketing years. For the week, December
corn was down 22¾ cents.
Wheat
markets continued to rally on the
European/Asian crop problems, although not
as robustly as the previous week. Wheat
on U.S. exchanges was clearly a
follower of European prices, waiting
to make new highs until after European prices
led the way mid-week. Harvest is
getting into full swing in the EU-27 countries
and the more threatened spring crops of
Russia and Kazakhstan are still a few weeks
away from harvest. For the week, the nearby
contracts were up 9 cents in Chicago,
16 cents in Kansas City and 17 cents in
Minneapolis.
November
soybeans were just 3½ cents
lower on the week, reluctant to
give ground ahead of the August
reproductive timeframe despite the selling
in corn. Demand news was mixed for beans
this week. The June Census Bureau
crush was less than expected at
129.2 million bushels. Marketing year to
date, the crush is up 5.7 percent, still
ahead of the USDA projection of
a 5 percent increase.
Export
sales were strong once again though,
with the focus on the 2010/11 marketing
year. The daily reporting system
lit up this week on three different
days to announce the sales of a total of
575 tmt to a combination of South Korea,
China and others.
Friday’s
Cattle On Feed report was
about as expected, showing
3.3 percent more cattle in feedlots than
a year ago. The nearby live cattle
price was up a little over a dollar
for the week, reaching the highest price
since May on Thursday.
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